Readers Deserve Accountability:
Revisiting Our Predictions for 2021
Hello friends,
Hopefully everyone had a wonderful Father's Day and are enjoying the start of Summer. As we approach the half way mark of 2021 I thought it would be a fun exercise to look back at our December predictions for the year ahead. Spoiler Alert: some have aged better than others. Get your judgy faces and comments ready...for Where Steve Was Right / Where Steve Was Wrong
Where Steve Was Right
"Fears over a mounting U.S. national debt and decreasing dollar will help see Bitcoin outperform the S&P 500"
What a wild ride the first two quarters have been for players in the crypto space. Ending 2020 at 29k, Bitcoin rose as high as $63,300 before retreating over 50%. Those brave enough to venture into alternative coins have seen volatility several degrees higher.
The S&P 500 on the other hand has been relatively smooth sailing, with investors seeing a series of higher highs & higher lows. While large cap tech lead the way out of the recession its been cyclical names in consumer staples and banking responsible for recent success.
Where Steve Was Right
"Facing a massive budget shortfall NYS will okay regulated online sports betting"
Nailed the first part of the prophesy, on track for the second. Initially stated by Governor Cuomo to be as high as $15 billion the state budget deficit for 2021 will most likely end up near $5 billion and $10 billion for fiscal year 2022. Reducing expenditures would be outside the norm for the administration, so if the gap is to be reduced it will need to be done via increasing revenues.
April saw the state release a Mobile Sports Wagering FAQ outlining what a path forward for online sports betting would look like. Some in the government prefer a state run model similar to how the lottery operates, while others would like to see operations run by private industry. 21 states currently offer or have approved legislation to begin offering online sports betting. New York appears to be joining the list soon.
Where Steve Was Wrong
"Housing prices will continue climbing into Q2, where they will stagnate following an influx of inventory from distressed sellers who have exhausted all forbearance options."
Nothing to do but take the L on this one. Direct stimulus to families and forgivable loans to businesses have for the most part kept everyone afloat. Landlords, seemingly the only group not offered help during the downturn, are just now being thrown a lifeline with state and federal aid for renters in default. Less than 5% of all mortgage loans are in forbearance according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Housing inventory remains under supplied while prices continue double digit growth in many markets of the country.
Where Steve Was Right
"Saratoga Race track will host 50,000 live fans for Travers Day 2021"
Mark your calendars, August 28th, 2021. The New York Racing Association announced this month Saratoga will open mid July at 100% normal capacity. Reserved seating for the Mid-Summer Derby sold out (your boy tried and failed) within minutes of going on sale. Looking forward to an amazing Summer, hope to see you there!
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Steven Luttman
Broker/Owner SJLincoln Realty
35 Bath Street, Ballston Spa NY 12020
(518) 309-8584